US Navy should prepare for an invasion of Taiwan as soon as this year, fleet chief says

A top US Navy official said on Wednesday that a mainland Chinese invasion of Taiwan could take place as soon as this year, based partly on comments by Chinese President Xi Jinping at a major political conference in Beijing this week.

Asked how the US Navy should respond to Xi’s warning at the 20th party congress about Taiwan separatism, Admiral Michael Gilday, chief of US naval operations, said: “It’s not just what President Xi says, but it’s how the Chinese behave and what they do.

“What we’ve seen over the past 20 years is that they have delivered on every promise they’ve made earlier than they said they were going to deliver on it,” he said in a discussion hosted by the Atlantic Council.

“So when we talk about the 2027 window, in my mind, that has to be a 2022 window or potentially a 2023 window. I can’t rule it out.”

Gilday’s time frame is based on an assessment last year by Philip Davidson, the retired admiral who was then head of the US Indo-Pacific Command, that Beijing’s military might try to unify Taiwan with mainland China “within the next six years”.

Addressing more than 2,200 delegates to the 20th party congress on Sunday, Xi reiterated that Beijing would not rule out the use of force to bring the island under its control.

“Resolving the Taiwan question is a matter for the Chinese, a matter that must be resolved by the Chinese,” Xi said.

“We will continue to strive for peaceful reunification with the greatest sincerity and the utmost effort, but we will never promise to renounce the use of force, and we reserve the option of taking all measures necessary.”

Earlier on Wednesday, Chinese Defence Minister General Wei Fenghe said his country was running into “severe and grave national security conditions” and that it was important for the military to adhere to Xi’s directives.

Tensions between Washington and Beijing over Taiwan reached a critical point in August, when US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taipei, prompting Beijing to start a round of unprecedented military exercises that all but surrounded the island.

Beijing views Taiwan as a breakaway province to be united with the mainland, by force if necessary. Few countries, including the United States, recognise the island as an independent state. But Washington is committed by law to support Taiwan’s military defence capability – a stance Beijing strongly opposes.

China was a key focus of a long-awaited national security strategy released by US President Joe Biden last week. It identified major-power competition with China as the “most consequential geopolitical challenge” facing America in the post-Cold War era.

More broadly, Gilday said that he was prioritising a “fight tonight” posture for the US Navy over any efforts to expand the size of his fleet, in response to “what we’re seeing from an increasingly aggressive China and Russia”.

Those circumstances, he said, had pushed the US military to speed up alliances such as Aukus, a military cooperation agreement with Britain and Australia to provide Australia nuclear-powered submarines.

Gilday also cited his meeting with the Chief of Staff of Japan’s Maritime Self-Defence Force Admiral Sakai Ryo during the 13th Trans-Regional Seapower Symposium, hosted by the Italian Navy earlier this month, as further evidence of deepening cooperation.

The event is held every two years, drawing participants from more than 50 nations to discuss the latest developments in confronting maritime challenges, but this year’s edition was the first to feature a Japanese participant of Ryo’s rank.

“There’s little if anything that we do on a day-to-day basis that we’re not doing in concert with our allies and partners,” Gilday said. “Those relationships are absolutely critical.

“They’re relationships that the Chinese or the Russians don’t enjoy in the same numbers that we do,” he added. “We see it as an asymmetric advantage.”