Iran preparing to enrich weapons-grade uranium, Israel warns U.S.
Israel has shared intelligence over the past two weeks with
the U.S. and several European allies suggesting that Iran is taking technical
steps to prepare to enrich uranium to 90% purity — the level needed to produce
a nuclear weapon, two U.S. sources briefed on the issue tell me.
Why it matters: Enriching to 90% would bring Iran closer
than ever to the nuclear threshold. The Israeli warnings come as nuclear talks
resume in Vienna, with Iran returning to the negotiating table on Monday after
a five-month hiatus.
State of play: Enrichment alone will not produce a bomb.
Estimates vary as to how long it would take Iran to master the additional
technological requirements, but U.S. and Israeli intelligence sources have put
the timeline at one to two years.
Iran is already enriching uranium to 60%, far beyond the
levels allowed under the 2015 nuclear deal that Donald Trump abandoned and
President Biden is now attempting to salvage.
There is no civilian use for 90%-enriched uranium.
Behind the scenes: The intelligence Israel shared with the
Biden administration suggests the Iranian preparatory steps would allow Iran to
move ahead with 90% enrichment within weeks if it chose to do so, according to
one of the U.S. sources.
Israeli intelligence analysts assess that Iran could take
that dramatic step soon in an attempt to gain leverage in the Vienna talks, the
source said.
Israel also shared an intelligence assessment that Iran's
desire for leverage in Vienna could lead Tehran to further increase attacks
against U.S. forces and interests in the region via proxies in Yemen, Syria and
Iraq, the U.S. source said.
The Israeli Prime Minister’s Office, Foreign Ministry and
Ministry of Defense declined to comment. The White House hadn't responded to a
request for comment by time of publication.
What they're saying: Israeli officials have been pushing
their U.S. and European counterparts to take a hard line with Iran in Vienna.
Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz said in a speech on Monday that Israel had
shared with its allies “intelligence which points to Iran’s continued race
toward a nuclear weapon while violating the 2015 agreement."
Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid, who met with his U.K.
counterpart Liz Truss in London on Monday, claimed there was indisputable
intelligence that Iran intended to secretly continue its nuclear program no
matter the result in Vienna.
Truss called the Vienna talks “the last opportunity for the
Iranians to come to the table” and agree to return to the 2015 accord. “We will
look at all options if that doesn't happen," she said.
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said on
Monday that the U.S. and its European allies “must understand that this
opportunity is not a window that could remain open forever."
Meanwhile, Iran's hawkish new nuclear negotiator, Ali
Bagheri Kani, wrote in the FT that a deal will only be possible if the U.S. is
willing to "pay a price" for Trump's withdrawal, guarantee that it
won't be repeated, and make the first move by removing all sanctions imposed
since 2015. The Biden administration has said it will not meet those
conditions.
Driving the news: The nuclear talks resumed Monday with a
plenary session including the Iranian delegation and diplomats from the EU,
France, Germany, the U.K., Russia and China.
The U.S. negotiating team, headed by Iran envoy Rob Malley,
is in Vienna but not in the room. They'll be negotiating indirectly through
European mediators.
The latest: The head of the EU delegation, Enrique Mora,
said in a press briefing that he was optimistic about the first day of talks
but doesn’t think any breakthrough will be reached in the initial round.
He said Iranian negotiators had agreed to take into
consideration the previous six rounds of talks held under the previous, more
moderate Iranian government.
Mora said Tuesday's sessions would focus on sanctions
relief, Iran's top priority, and Wednesday's on the needed limitations on
Iran’s nuclear program.
Bagheri said the prioritization of sanctions relief was an
achievement for Iran. He also said he was optimistic.
What’s next: Gantz is expected to visit Washington in the
coming days to discuss the Iranian nuclear crisis with Secretary of Defense
Lloyd Austin and other senior Biden administration officials.
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