Corruption, drugs, instability mar Honduras election
Hondurans head to the polls on Sunday to elect a new
president in a country wracked by corruption and beset by powerful
drug-trafficking gangs that have even infiltrated the top ranks of government.
Many young people have given up hope of a better future and
think only of migrating to the United States.
Since the coup d'etat that deposed Manuel Zelaya in 2009,
the country has been run by the right-wing National Party of outgoing President
Juan Orlando Hernandez, accused in the US of involvement in drug trafficking.
Zelaya's wife and former first lady Xiomara Castro, of the
leftist LIBRE party, leads in several opinion polls. But many fear the ruling
party, represented by Tegucigalpa mayor Nasry Asfura, will not readily give up
power.
"After a dozen years of National Party rule marked by
widespread corruption and criminality, most Hondurans are unhappy with the
status quo and seem to be looking for change," said Michael Shifter,
president of the Inter-American Dialogue.
"But the National Party machine should not be underestimated,
and many powerful interests can be expected to do what they can to block Castro
from taking the reins of the country."
The National Party has led a vicious campaign, portraying
Castro as a communist and highlighting her plans to legalize abortion and
same-sex marriage -- sensitive issues in conservative Honduras.
'US pushing for clean vote'
The National Party has history when it comes to bending the
rules.
Hernandez won two elections marred by accusations of fraud.
He narrowly beat Castro in 2013 and then bypassed the
constitution's ban on reelection to win a second term in 2017.
Serious social unrest erupted after Hernandez's second win,
in which he edged out popular television host Salvador Nasralla, who has thrown
his support behind Castro this time.
Such a repeat of mass protests would not go down well in
Washington. The United States is Honduras's biggest trade partner and the
intended destination of the thousands-strong migration caravans that regularly
leave the Central American country.
"The (Joe) Biden administration is pressing for a clean
and fair vote," said Shifter.
"The US wants to avoid a replay of 2017" and the
increased pressure on migration caused by a worsening humanitarian situation,
he added.
Honduras is on tenterhooks regarding what comes next.
If Castro were to win by a small margin, "the National
Party will allege fraud and... that could be dangerous for the country's
stability," said analyst Victor Meza, director of the Honduran
Documentation Center, an NGO that promotes democracy.
If Asfura wins, no matter by how much, "the defeated
opposition will not accept it... and will demand a recount vote by vote or new
elections."
Hope for peaceful vote
Fifty-nine percent of the 10 million population lives in
poverty, exacerbated by the coronavirus pandemic.
Their hopes are simple.
"The important thing is that (the next president)
provides jobs, education, helps the poor to get ahead, and hopefully there
won't be trouble," said Wilson Garcia, 37, a street vendor.
Unemployment almost doubled during the pandemic from 5.7
percent in 2019 to 10.9 percent in 2020.
"We hope the elections will be peaceful, that there are
no problems, everything is transparent and that every candidate" accepts
the results, said Delia Flores, 65, another street vendor.
What has been evident on the campaign trail is a lack of
concrete political, social or economic proposals.
The third candidate -- out of 13 in total -- with a
realistic hope of winning, Yani Rosenthal of the Liberal Party, has simply
promised to give every adult a monthly voucher worth $60 if he wins.
Skepticism is high, though, when it comes to a candidate who
spent three years in a US jail for laundering drug trafficking money and was
only just released in time last year to run for president.
"The politicians promise and promise, but I don't see
anything," said Jose Velasquez, 50.
"We all hope there is change... the truth is, we need
it," added Maria Pena, 18.
Whoever wins, "the list of challenges is enormous, the
first of which is to rebuild the country's democratic institutional
fabric," said analyst Meza.
Over the last two years, Congress has disbanded an
anti-corruption commission backed by the Organization of American States, and
passed a new criminal code lowering sentencing for corruption and drug
trafficking cases.
Many members of Congress have been accused of corruption and
were being investigated by the disbanded body.
Traffickers caught by the United States have implicated
Hernandez in illicit activity, and the president's brother Tony Hernandez was
in March sentenced to life in a US prison for trafficking 185 tons of cocaine.
Honduras "is a degraded state, partially co-opted by
organized crime," said Meza.
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