Guyana’s Oil And Gas Development Will Offer Another Strong Rebuke Against Venezuelan Aggression
The development of Guyana’s oil and gas sector is its best
chance to maintain its territorial integrity and sovereignty against
unsubstantiated claims and aggression by Venezuela. The border controversy has
plagued Guyana’s relations with Venezuela for more than a century, and now a
case on the validity of the 1899 Arbitral Award that settled the border sits
with the International Court of Justice. But although the process is ongoing,
Venezuela has proven it is unwilling to cooperate with the global institution.
Therefore, Guyana needs additional reinforcements, much of which can be found
with regional and international allies that will be drawn to support the
country due to its massive oil reserves.
Venezuela has long asserted its willingness to “reconquer”
Guyanese territory, but recent acts of aggression and the outcome of last
week’s negotiations in Mexico between the Nicolas Maduro and the opposition
once again raised the alarm. After almost a week of negotiations in Mexico, the
Venezuelan government and its opposition reached two agreements – one on the
COVID-19 pandemic and vaccinees and the other, a statement reinforcing
Venezuela’s claims to two-thirds of Guyanese territory. The claims, although
used a unifier among Venezuela’s fragmented political society, holds no
authority among the global community and in international law.
In addition, these claims occur after numerous acts of
Venezuelan aggression against Guyana. This includes a decree issued by
President Nicolas Maduro, where he directed the Venezuelan National Assembly
earlier this year to create a special committee about the border
controversy. Further acts include the
interception and detention of Guyanese naval vessels in 2013, 2019 and 2021,
military flyovers in Guyana’s airspace, and Venezuelan gangs that conduct and
protect illegal miners that operate in Guyanese territory.
In response to the negotiations, both the Guyanese
government and its opposition were unequivocal in their rebuke of the
Venezuelan claims. Guyana’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs noted that “Guyana
cannot be used as an altar of sacrifice for settlement of Venezuela’s internal
political differences,” and President Mohamed Irfaan Ali stated that Guyana
will not “be bullied” or “used as a sacrificial lamb.” A representative from
the opposition APNU + AFC coalition also offered support for Guyana’s
sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Currently, the border controversy sits with the
International Court of Justice (ICJ), and while Guyana expects the Court to
rule in its favor, Venezuela has shown its unwillingness to cooperate with the
institution. The case is also expected to be a long, drawn out process that
does little to protect Guyana today. Winning the case does afford Guyana
international legitimacy and the backing of international law, but if Venezuela
continues to disregard the ongoing case, the ICJ as a multilateral body can do
little to enforce its judgements. As a result, Guyana needs additional
reinforcements, much of which can be secured via its oil and gas wealth.
As recent as early September 2021, ExxonMobil announced
additional discoveries off the coast of Guyana, and continued its major
drilling campaign offshore that could see the proven reserves double by 2025.
Money from the signing bonus paid to Guyana by the oil major in 2016 has
already been deployed in the legal case at the ICJ. More oil and gas will
translate into greater material benefits, which will not only have a positive
effect on the domestic population but also the broader Caribbean region. Guyana
already enjoys the support of the Caribbean Community or CARICOM, but if this
support is backed by material benefits, any threat to Guyanese sovereignty and
territory has tangible implications for the region. Also, Guyana was noted as
one of the top five countries that will have some of the world’s top oil
resources, which means massive oil consumers and future investors, such as
China and India, will remain engaged as they are likely to benefit from the
country’s future prosperity.
Beyond CARICOM and international support, increasing involvement
of U.S. companies in Guyana assures that Venezuelan aggression will remain on
the U.S. radar. Not only is the United States increasing its investments in
Guyana, but it also sees the country as an emerging and important political
player in the Caribbean. Therefore, the United States is likely to look toward
Guyana as a pivotal partner in its current and future U.S.-Caribbean policy.
Loss of oil assets or instability that arises from Venezuelan claims over
Guyanese territory can put U.S. interests at risk.
To protect Guyana’s prosperity, U.S. interests, and
stability across the hemisphere, the country needs to rapidly develop its oil
and gas sector. Continuing its current progress to the avoid the pitfalls that
plagued Venezuela’s oil sector and recent commitments to address environmental
impacts protects Guyana’s image abroad, thus making more companies and states
willing to invest. Greater investments and more bilateral engagement increase
the global stake in Guyana’s development and can become a deterrent to current
and future Venezuelan claims.
Timing is critical as Venezuela has already stated and
demonstrated that it will not participate in the convening of international
institutions or abide by international law. Venezuela has noted that it is
willing to return to bilateral diplomacy to resolve the controversy, but all
diplomatic options have been exhausted and frequent acts of aggression are a
contradiction. Therefore, the best way for Guyana to cement its position and
case at a regional and global scale is to ensure that a loss of territory to
Venezuela has material implications for more than just Guyanese.
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