German spy chief warns of Islamic State's strength
The head of Germany's foreign intelligence agency, the BND, has given a rare interview specifically to warn that, despite appearances, Islamist terrorism remains a real threat to world order, even 20 years after 9/11.
Speaking to the Süddeutsche Zeitung on Monday, Bruno Kahl
said that though Europe and the US had not seen any more major terrorist
attacks like those of two decades ago, "Islamist terrorism has developed
further and cost very many human lives. The number of terrorist actors and the
danger they pose has increased."
There have of course been major successes in the fight
against the Islamic State in the past few years — especially the 2019 killing
of the group's self-proclaimed caliph, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, and the
destruction of the "caliphate" in Syria and Iraq as a quasi-state
entity. But since then, said Kahl, IS has turned into a decentralized network,
much like al-Qaida, whose suborganizations "are even spreading out."
This isn't exactly news, according to Mirna El Masri, a
radicalization and terrorism researcher at the Hamburg-based German Institute
for Global and Area Studies (GIGA). "There had been indications in 2019
after the loss of its territories that IS had strengthened considerably,"
she told DW. "On the other hand, new circumstances have exacerbated the
situation in the past year, which might explain why Kahl has decided to talk
about this now."
For one thing, the spread of the coronavirus in the Middle
East region has weakened the Iraqi government and increased the desperation of
many people, which has turned refugee camps in northern Syria into particularly
good IS recruitment centers. The longer the pandemic continues, El Masri said,
the more it will help IS.
The Islamic State has also learned to adapt its strategies,
according to El Masri. Commanders have been subdivided into specific
operational sectors in the region, taking over decision-making
responsibilities. The latest reports also suggest that IS fighters have
withdrawn completely from urban areas, but are able to move freely in the open
country simply by avoiding state forces, especially near the city around the
Syrian city of Deir ez-Zor.
IS has also developed new business models, adopting
organized crime tactics such as demanding illegal taxes along oil and trade
routes and using hotels, real estate and even car dealerships to launder money
between Iraq, Syria, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates.
"That has made it more difficult to see and monitor for
German and international intelligence agencies," said Eric Stollenwerk,
terrorism and Sahel region researcher for GIGA, who agrees that the group is
still very powerful in both Syria and Iraq. "Beyond that, it has strong
connections with other regions in the world, such as sub-Saharan Africa and
especially the Sahel region," he added.
Kahl told the SZ that there is only one way to stop the
development of terrorist organizations such as IS: "The imposition of the
monopoly of state power, the erection of state structures, the guarantee of
security." That, he argues, is where European and Western powers can help
countries such as Burkina Faso, Niger and Nigeria. "We have to support the
states in regaining control or at least to maintain it where it can be
maintained," he said.
El Masri agrees with Kahl's assessment: "A basic driver
of terrorist organizations is a weak state," she said. "Because IS
can act as a kind of alternative state: by offering income, security, and
social mobility for their members. In other words, they can take over the role
of the state." The European Union could and should help strengthen
government powers, El Masri said.
Stollenwerk said there was more to it than that. "Only
strengthening the state will defeat neither al-Qaida nor IS," he said.
"Because these are regions where autocratic regimes are relatively
predominant — if all you do is strengthen state powers that repress their own
population, it can have the exact opposite effect on fundamentalist movements:
Namely, you're more likely to play into the hands of those organizations."
For Stollenwerk, what matters is embedding state structures
in a democratic, civil society. "That means both local and international
NGOs and foundations, but also supporting religious organizations on the
ground," he said. "Because I think what Kahl neglects in this
interview is that for most Muslims in these regions, organizations like IS are
a huge problem. There is a big potential for mobilization against terrorist
organizations in the civilian population."
That doesn't mean trying to impose democracy wholesale. The
wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have shown how disastrous those undertakings can
be — a lesson not lost on the BND's Bruno Kahl. "We shouldn't promise any
castles in the sky, like the export of democracy and the rule of law and
idyllic conditions," he told SZ. "The main thing is to organize
security."
El Masri called this "a very realistic statement."
"I think we're a long way away from European-style democracy in the Sahel
region," she said. "It's a process of security first, and then
everything else follows that."
Hürcan Asli Aksoy, deputy head of Centre for Applied Turkey
Studies at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP),
also thinks that European engagement with real "political weight, with
clear strategies and clear offers to the conflict parties" is vital to
contain the damage done by the conflict.
But Aksoy is also unconvinced that simply focusing on
security would bring a solution. "Conflict resolution and conflict
management must be equipped with medium- and long-term strategies according to
a rights-based, multilateral order."
That requires more than just putting troops on the ground.
It could also mean sending more training units to support local security forces
and providing humanitarian support to refugee camps in Syria and Iraq.
Exporting democracy might be illusory, Stollenwerk said,
"but it's just as illusory to think that by strengthening the state you
will automatically guarantee security."
Like its foreign intelligence counterpart, Germany's
domestic intelligence agency, the BfV, also believes that the threat of
terrorism is just as high now as it has been over the past few years. In its
latest report, published last month, the BfV reported a few minor Islamist
attacks in Germany in 2020. Most notable was the stabbing in Dresden in
October, when a man believed to have Islamist sympathies attacked two openly
gay tourists with a knife, one of whom later died.
Nevertheless, the BfV warned, "complex and multiple
attacks, controlled by terrorist groups abroad, have not taken place in Germany
yet, but could happen any time."
Even though he believes that IS should not be
underestimated, Stollenwerk said the danger of IS "returnees"
carrying out frequent and large-scale terrorist attacks in Germany was
relatively low.
"It's unrealistic to say that, if IS experiences more
losses in the Middle East, a wave of terror would wash over Germany," he
said. "But the danger of so-called lone wolves — e.g., people who become
radicalized on the internet — is extremely difficult for intelligence agencies
to monitor or prevent."
The BfV report, which is usually filled with statistics on
the number of extremists believed to be in the country, makes this clear: It is
has been unable to establish exactly how many IS or al-Qaida members or
supporters are currently living in Germany.
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