Maia Sandu is about to become the most powerful leader in Moldova’s history
Long portrayed by the international media, in overly simplistic terms, as “pro-European” (as opposed to her predecessor Igor Dodon, who favours closer ties with Russia), since taking office the Harvard-educated Sandu has made not Europe her priority, but fighting corruption, which she believes – not without reason – to be the main cause of the country’s widespread poverty.
So far, she has been held back by a parliament which, as she
puts it, “does not truly represent Moldovans”. On July 11 however, the country
will vote for a new parliament, and if the latest opinion polls can be
believed, Sandu’s party, Action and Solidarity (known by its Romanian acronym,
PAS), is set for a landslide victory.
“Only a new election, a new parliament, and a new government
that will work in the best interests of us all” can fix Moldova, Sandu said in
April when she finally got her wish to dissolve the current legislature.
That she was able to do so was itself a key victory, the
result of great tenacity and recognition that alone – Moldova’s president has
few powers – she could do very little. With the few constitutional tools at her
disposal, however, she has so far managed to outmanoeuvre all of her opponents.
Moldova has been without a formal government since December
23 last year, when Ion Chicu resigned – just a day before Sandu took office.
Chicu’s government was a shaky coalition of two centre-left
parties, the Moldovan Socialists (PSRM) of former president Dodon, and the
Democratic party, formerly led by the oligarch Vlad Plahotniuc who is currently
fighting extradition to Moldova from the US on corruption charges.
The coalition – which took office in November 2019 – could
count on the support of just 51 of Moldova’s 101 MPs.
To replace Chicu, President Sandu twice nominated Natalia
Gavriliță, a former finance minister, to be the country’s next prime minister,
knowing full well that Gavriliță was highly unlikely to receive the backing of
Moldova’s parliament. According to Moldova’s constitution, Sandu can dissolve parliament
if it twice fails to approve a new executive.
In February, however, the country’s top court ruled that
Sandu had acted unconstitutionally by twice nominating Gavriliță, reasoning
that Sandu should have accepted a proposal from 54 MPs (primarily from PSRM) to
instead nominate Mariana Durleșteanu, a former Moldovan ambassador to the UK.
Back then, Sandu vowed to stand her ground, saying that, “I
have said repeatedly that the only way for Moldova to move forward is to
organise new parliamentary elections.”
State of emergency
Moldova then took a step closer towards an election on April
15 when the court changed its mind, ruling that Sandu was free to dissolve
parliament.
However, there was a twist: the court added that parliament
cannot be dissolved during a state of emergency.
Moldova’s lawmakers voted to introduce a state of emergency
for a period two months on March 31. The move was ostensibly to help the
country control the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic, but was widely viewed as a
last-ditch attempt by Sandu’s opponents to block the dissolution of parliament
and delay a new election further.
Sandu again stood her ground, asking the court to rule on
the legality of the state of the emergency itself.
According to Moldova’s constitution, only a president or
prime minister with “full powers” can ask parliament to pass state of emergency
legislation. Moldova’s current prime minister, Aureliu Ciocoi, is merely an
interim without such power.
On April 28, the court ruled that the state of emergency was
indeed illegal. Sandu immediately dissolved parliament, saying that, “power is
now in the hands of people. The fight to clean up our political class, to
eradicate corruption, is tough, and the path to a better Moldova is a long one.
But we are now heading in the right direction.”
“We are closer than ever to bringing an end to chaos. We
have given ourselves the opportunity to do just that. We must be wise in what
we choose to do with that opportunity,” she added.
An opinion poll published on June 20 suggests that Moldovans
are about to hand Sandu’s party not just a majority, but a majority large
enough to implement constitutional changes.
The poll puts support for PAS at 38.1 per cent, well ahead
of Dodon’s Socialists (who have formed an electoral pact with the Moldovan
Communist party of another former president, Vladimir Voronin) on 21.4 per
cent. Amongst those who say that they are certain to vote, support for PAS
jumps to almost 50 per cent. What’s more, besides PAS and the Socialists, no
other party or electoral alliance would enter parliament, meaning that PAS
would be redistributed enough to seats to claim its constitutional majority.
The poll also revealed that Sandu is by far the most trusted
politician in the country, suggesting that support for PAS is based on personal
support for the president.
While the poll does not include any respondents from
Moldova’s breakaway region of Transnistria, home to around 10 per cent of the
electorate (almost all of whom are ethnic Russians, who traditionally vote
socialist or communist), the difficulties Transnistrians face in voting have
seen the numbers doing so greatly reduced in recent elections.
In November’s presidential election, just 12 per cent crossed
the Nistru river (the Transnistrian authorities do not allow polling stations
to be located in the territory they control) in order to vote. While almost all
of these votes went to Dodon, their numbers were nowhere near high enough to
change the outcome of the election, which Sandu won by a landslide.
Absent Romania
The same opinion poll also revealed that support for
unification with Romania stands at just 35 per cent, vindication for Sandu’s
strategy of keeping Romanian politicians who might want to help the PAS
campaign at arm’s length.
Moldova’s ethnic Russian, Ukrainian, and Gagauz minorities —
who make up around a quarter of Moldova’s population – get understandably
spooked when Romania takes any kind of interest in the country, viewing it as
the first step towards the eventual unification of the two countries.
Most of present-day Moldova was for part of the 20th century
an integral part of Romania, but while talk of reunification was once
prominent, few have ever given the idea serious credence: not least because
most Moldovans oppose it.
Furthermore, except for a few extreme nationalists, such as
the Alliance for Romanian Unity (AUR; a Romanian parliamentary party which is
fielding candidates in Moldova’s election), most Romanian politicians appear to
have tacitly accepted that history and politics aside, Romania simply could not
afford to absorb Europe’s poorest country.
Few admit to that publicly, but in preferring to utter
polite but ultimately meaningless statements about a “strong partnership” and
“support for Moldova’s European integration”, as opposed to explicit support
for unification, they do just that.
In doing so, and by staying away from the campaign trail –
Romanian politicians once had a habit of making high profile, usually
counterproductive visits during Moldovan election campaigns – they might well
have helped Moldova’s Russian speakers view Sandu, and by association PAS, more
favourably. Sandu has made a point of repeatedly stating that she wants “true
balance” in foreign policy and “pragmatic dialogue with all countries including
Romania, Ukraine, European countries, Russia and the United States”.
Dodon’s deal with the communists also looks increasingly
like an own goal: few were impressed when communist leader Voronin said earlier
this month that a PAS-dominated parliament would allow NATO troops into
Moldova, leading to “Moldovan babies being born with a dark skin colour”.
A decade or so ago such scaremongering worked. Today, less
so.
It’s also worth noting that support for AUR in Moldova is
currently at just 1.3 per cent: it has no chance of making the five per cent
parliamentary threshold, which is why some have not been shy to suggest that it
is a stooge, designed to scare wavering ethnic Russians into voting for the
socialists and communists.
That AUR was campaigning in Transnistria this weekend – the
last place on earth you would expect to find Romanian unionists – only adds
grist to the rumour mill.
What now looks almost certain however – with the usual
caveats that much could change over the next three weeks – is that Maia Sandu
is about to become the most powerful leader independent Moldova has ever had.
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