Probe Into Belarus’s Diversion Flight Faces Delays Over Black-Box Analysis
Lithuanian and Polish investigators probing a diverted Ryanair flight over Belarus haven’t yet decoded information held in the plane’s black box amid early frustration with the airline’s cooperation and conflicting narratives by several governments involved.
Like many aircraft-related probes, investigators believe the
plane’s black box—which holds devices that store operational data and cockpit
audio—could hold critical information about what happened on May 23 over
Belarus. But unlike in investigations involving crashes, the plane and crew are
safe, and the aircraft’s black box has been available to investigators for
almost a week.
Meanwhile, sometimes-competing jurisdictions in the probe
and political sensitivities over what has become an international incident have
made the investigation more complex than most.
“Most investigations start from a premise of determining
what should have happened, then examine what did happen” and then reconcile the
two and draw lessons learned, said Conor Nolan, chairman of the Virginia-based
Flight Safety Foundation, which advocates for air safety. “In this case, we
cannot easily determine what should have happened because it is far from clear
how reliable any of the source data is.”
Lithuania and Poland haven’t yet determined where they will
ship the black box for analysis, saying they are looking for a country that
won’t appear to be politically biased. Lithuania, where the plane landed after
its stop in Minsk, has opened a criminal probe. Officials there said they have
interviewed passengers and debriefed the cockpit and cabin crew. The plane and
crew returned Saturday to London’s Stansted Airport, Ryanair’s biggest base.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said on May 23 he
had scrambled a jet fighter to intercept the plane after receiving a threat of
a bomb aboard. While the Ryanair plane was on the ground in Minsk, authorities
arrested a prominent Belarus dissident aboard and detained his girlfriend.
Details about the bomb threat have been widely discredited,
but exactly what happened between Belarus authorities and Ryanair pilots is still
unknown. Ryanair has said ground control gave the pilots no choice but to
divert from their original destination of Vilnius, Lithuania, to Minsk. The
airline’s chief executive said he believed state security officers were aboard
the flight as part of what he called a preplanned hijacking.
The plane departed from Athens, and Greece’s prime minister
weighed in Friday, disputing Ryanair’s account and saying there was no evidence
agents working for Belarus boarded the plane. Belarus has said it was reacting
according to international protocols to a bomb threat.
Belarus released a transcript of communication between
traffic controllers and the plane which portrayed the pilots repeatedly
questioning controllers’ recommendation for the jet to land in Minsk.
Complicating the investigation are the multiple governments
involved. The aircraft is owned by Dublin, Ireland-based Ryanair Holdings PLC,
but is registered via a subsidiary in Poland. According to rules governing
international aviation investigations, that means Poland should lead a probe.
Greece, as the country of the flight’s origin, is allowed to
participate in the probe, as is Ireland, where Ryanair is based. Investigators
from any country who had nationals on the flight are also allowed to take part.
The Federal Bureau of Investigation is part of the probe
because American citizens were aboard. “The Department of Justice, including
the FBI, is working closely on this matter with our European counterparts,” a
spokesperson said.
Jurisdiction over a criminal probe is less clear-cut, as is
the role individual countries can play, deepening the complexity. The
International Civil Aviation Organization, an arm of the United Nations, is
also investigating.
Lithuania and Poland have said they would decide this week
where to send the data and voice recorders. Neither country has the technical
ability to do the analysis. They have said they prefer a third-party state with
no connection to Belarus or Ryanair.
It isn’t clear if information from the black box will answer
all the questions investigators have. One concern is that the cockpit voice
recorder typically doesn’t store recordings for longer than two hours. It isn’t
clear if the relevant portion of the flight is still accessible, since the
plane continued on to its final destination, Lithuanian authorities said. It
may be that the dialogue concerning the diversion was overwritten by that later
flight.
On Friday, Rolandas Kiskis, the chief of the Lithuanian
Criminal Police Bureau, said he was frustrated with Ryanair’s initial
cooperation in the investigation.
“Cooperation is ongoing,” he said. “But, to be honest, we
and the prosecution service believe it could be faster and more intensive.” By
Saturday, the police said the company had come back with more information. A
spokeswoman for Ryanair declined to comment.
The cooperation of Belarus is also in doubt. So far,
Lithuanian police have received what they called a cursory response from
Belarusian law-enforcement agencies via Interpol channels. Mr. Lukashenko on
Friday met with Russian President Vladimir Putin, carrying a black briefcase
filled with documents that he said support his country’s account of the
incident.
Mr. Lukashenko’s office didn’t immediately respond to a
request for comment about what the Belarusian president revealed to Mr. Putin.
The Kremlin declined to comment on what the Russian president was told.
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