Turkey, Iran, Russia benefit from Azerbaijan, Armenia conflict
A month of fighting has taken place between Armenia and Azerbaijan, leaving cities smoldering, thousands of civilians forced to flee and thousands of soldiers killed and wounded, while regional countries benefit from the suffering.
The war against Armenia was fueled by Turkey which supplied
drones, sent Syrian extremist mercenaries and encouraged Baku to attack
Armenian forces in Nagorno-Karabakh in September. A month later, Azerbaijan has
been slowly pushing back Armenian fighters in a grinding war.
On October 25, US President Donald Trump congratulated
Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev and Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan
on a ceasefire agreement. It was brokered after US Deputy Secretary of State
Stephen Biegun had met with his Armenian and Azerbaijan counterparts. It is not
clear if the latest agreement will hold or if it is only temporary and for
humanitarian reasons.
Turkey continues
to push for more fighting. Turkish media, which is entirely pro-government and
does not permit criticism of Ankara’s leadership, has daily, splashy headlines
encouraging people to cheer the war.
Anadolu News Agency, for instance, has a section of the
homepage where one can experience the “frontline” along with numerous stories
about how Armenia has committed “war crimes” and has violated a “ceasefire” and
then stories about Ankara offering military support to Azerbaijan. Turkish
media makes it clear that the war against Armenia is a Turkish war, all about
making Ankara dominate the region and sell its drones abroad.
Turkish media makes the government’s role in the conflict
clear through reports that the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) is operating in
Armenia, a totally invented story with no evidence – which is part of how
Ankara’s media repeatedly invents stories of “PKK terrorists” operating in
areas Turkey wants to invade.
Turkey has
claimed the “PKK” operates from Sinjar in Iraq and Syria, even though there
have been no “terrorist” attacks on Turkey from these areas. In 2018 Ankara
claimed it had to invade and ethnically cleanse Afrin in Syria, expelling Kurds
and minorities, and destroying churches and Yazidi graveyards, to fight “PKK
terrorists.” It created the same rhetoric to justify war against Armenia.
IRAN AND Russia
have also benefited from the fighting by being made to appear as responsible
countries pushing for a ceasefire. While Turkey pushes tensions, these two
countries claim they want the fighting to end but that they also want
international law observed. Azerbaijan claims that Nagorno-Karabakh is its
territory based on international law. While that same law would not justify war
to attack the area, Azerbaijan receives support from Moscow and Tehran on this
point. They want mediation, whereas Ankara wants conflict.
Overall, the three countries already worked to partition
Syria into spheres of influence and Russia and Turkey have also likewise
partitioned Libya, which means the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia is
not a conflict between these regional powers, but one in which they manage the
conflict together and benefit economically because both sides buy their arms to
continue fighting.
The fighting so far has destroyed a massive amount of
Armenian material. Drones have been key to revolutionizing Azerbaijan’s war
effort. Baku has used precision strikes to make tanks and artillery appear
obsolete. They have also used drones to hunt down Armenia's air defense
systems. More than 100 Armenian T-72 tanks have been destroyed according to
videos, and dozens of other vehicles have been destroyed.
Armenia also claims hundreds of Azerbaijan vehicles and
drones have been downed. It is impossible to confirm the Armenian claims
because there are few videos as evidence. Baku puts out videos almost daily of
drones striking vehicles. It is believed that about 1,000 Armenian soldiers
have been killed in fighting.
Most of the fighting is done within the areas around
Nagorno-Karabakh, especially near the Iranian border. This means that Armenia
and Azerbaijan are not directly at war but that Baku is technically only fight
the Artsakh Armenian republic in Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan was careful not
to expand the war into the rest of Armenia.
However, Armenian rockets have fallen on Azerbaijan cities,
leading to claims of war crimes. Similarly an execution video of two Armenians
being killed has led to complains of Azerbaijan war crimes. Both sides have
shelled civilian towns and cities. Turkey has sent extremists from Syria to
fight Armenians, part of Ankara’s pro-Islamist zeal that exports extremists to
fight against minorities and terrorize Christians. This appears to have led the
US embassy in Baku to warn about terrorism.
AZERBAIJAN IS
making steady progress on its frontlines. Russia helped broker a ceasefire on
October 10 that was immediately violated. Moscow has tried mediation since the
fighting in July and had hosted meetings in September. Azerbaijan has ruled out
concessions, sensing it has the upper hand. Russia and the US had urged a
ceasefire since September 28 but the US refused to play much of a role.
Armenian protests worldwide have tried to pressure France,
Canada, the US and others to stop the conflict and stop arms sales to Turkey.
Many countries, like Germany, appear to prefer the arms sales over mediating
conflicts like this one. This has enabled the conflict to continue.
Iran has been concerned about destabilization on its border,
sending troops and armored vehicles and saying that the conflict could spill
over if everyone is not careful. Although Russia appeared like it might push a
second ceasefire mediation on October 21, it was left to the US to help broker
the new ceasefire on October 25.
It is believed that half of the people in
Armenian-controlled Nagorna-Karabakh have fled fighting. Some 75,000 have fled
in some areas, according to reports. Azerbaijanis are being encouraged to
return to areas that they claim. The US has expressed concern about shelling of
the Ghazanchetsots Cathedral in Nagorno-Karabakh. The US refused to name
Azerbaijan as the culprit, although Armenians said Azerbaijan shelled the site.
After Baku’s gains, it is unclear if the country will stop
the conflict at this stage. It has achieved gains, but likely wants to show it
has “liberated” more to justify the conflict. Turkey, having exported Syrian
extremists, many of them known for ethnic-cleansing of Kurds and brutal attacks
on minorities such as Christians and Yazidis, will want to keep the Syrians in
Azerbaijan so it can have a permanent occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh. This is
Ankara’s model in Cyprus, Libya, Syria and Iraq. There will likely be an
expanding Turkish presence now in Azerbaijan, and Turkey will try to prod
Azerbaijan into more conflicts.
US global leadership suffered another loss in the conflict
as Washington showed that for a month it could achieve little and didn’t bother
sending high level diplomats. This is part of the Trump strategy of “America
first” and not dealing with what he calls “faraway places.” This is a major
departure from the rules-based international order envisioned in the 1990s when
the US was a global hegemon.
Today Turkey, Iran, Russia and China help determine more
regional and global affairs as the US has retreated from dealing with foreign
conflicts and what many see as “endless wars.” This has led to unprecedented
levels of new conflicts, many of them fueled by countries like Turkey that prod
others to use a “might makes right” approach to foreign policy.
The war in Armenia and Azerbaijan is part of that. Frozen
since the 1990s, Baku claims that the international community failed to help it
get back territories. It tried various processes, such as the “Madrid
Principles” and “Minsk Group” talks.
Since the international community and its various
discussions have tended to fail to end conflicts like the one in Syria, many
countries see the Iranian, Russian, China and Turkish approach as more
appropriate than waiting for the EU, NATO, UN or US to do anything. The people
of Ganja and Stepanakert, under shelling during the recent war, have paid the
price.
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