Huawei ban could complicate 5G deployment
As carriers race to build out their 5G networks, options for buying the gear they need are fewer in the U.S. than in other countries thanks to federal pressure, which could be slowing deployments.
China-based Huawei and ZTE were both banned from providing
equipment to the government itself in the Defense Authorization Act of 2018,
and a general import ban followed shortly thereafter. That has changed the
competitive landscape considerably, and raises questions about how the shape of
5G in America could change as a consequence.
Michael Porowski , a Gartner analyst, said it’s possible,
though not completely clear, that the restriction on where carriers can buy
their 5G equipment is slowing deployment.
“There’s still an ample number of suppliers – Ericsson,
Nokia, Samsung,” he said. Both ZTE and Huawei are more economical options, he
said, and “if they were available, you might see a bit faster adoption.”
There’s a sense in the industry that Huawei equipment is
both sophisticated and priced to move, according to Christian Renaud, research
director at 451 Research, but there’s also no clear alternative that carriers
will gravitate to in the absence of Huawei.
“Here, you’ll have carriers that have standardized on Nokia
or Ericsson,” he said. “[And] it’s too soon to tell who’s most sophisticated
because deployments are so limited.”
That contention is borne out by coverage maps from the
carriers themselves. While they have been quick to trumpet the presence of 5G
service in many U.S. markets, the actual geographic coverage is mostly
restricted to public spaces in the urban cores of major cities. The lion’s
share of 5G deployment, in short, is yet to come.
There are good reasons for slow deployment. 5G access points
have to be deployed far more densely than earlier generation wireless
technology, making the process more involved and time-consuming. There’s also
the issue that the number of currently available 5G user devices is vanishingly
small.
“It’s like saying ‘I’ve got this eight-lane superhighway,’
before someone has invented cars,” said Renaud.
Part of the current goal for equipment vendors is
demonstrating the potentials of 5G through private deployments that use the
technology for backhaul, supporting IoT and other link use cases specific to a
single enterprise.
“[The equipment vendors] are all pushing hard on the private
piece, and then they can use that to say, ‘Look, I’m working the Brooklyn
dockyards or something in a private 5G network, so … if I can do that I can run
people’s YouTube connections,’” Renaud said.
An unfortunate result of the China ban might be a
splintering of the specifications that vendors follow to meet 5G requirements.
If non-China vendors have to make one version for markets where Huawei and ZTE
are allowed and a different version for places they are not, it could create a
new headache for them, according to Renaud.
“That’ll shift the burden of costs to the device makers to
try to support the different carrier implementations," he said. “We’ll
have created nontechnical barriers.” And those, in turn, could cause customer
experience to suffer.
But 5G has embraced a move toward greater interoperability
with open radio access network technology that standardizes the software
interfaces between layers of the 5G stack. The push is embraced by carriers and
equipment vendors alike, making interoperability more likely, which could draw
in even more players in the future.
Of course, even with pervasive interoperability, equipment
makers will still try to build customer dependency. “There’s always going to be
a tug of war between vendors trying to lock in customers and customers trying
to stay vendor-neutral,” he said. “That’s not going to change a lot. [But]
we’ve obviously seen a move toward trying to be more open.”
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