RUSSIAN MERCENARIES STILL FLOUNDERING IN AFRICA
Russia’s Wagner Group is having an increasingly difficult
time in Africa. About a year ago, Moscow was crowing about beating the West and
China in securing private military contracts, underbidding several western
countries’ bids by touting their “Syrian Model” of success. As a result, they
ended landing upwards of 20 private military contracts in Africa. But all of
that euphoria is drying up.
They entered Mozambique full of confidence: In August of
2019, Mozambican President Filipe Nyusi met with President Putin and came to an
agreement for the Russians to support the Mozambican military. This agreement
gave Russia numerous rich gas concessions in the country.
The Wagner Group deployed shortly after in October 2019 with
200 contractors. It landed at Mozambique’s Nacala Airport, to help the
government’s ongoing struggle against ISIS in the northern region of the
natural gas-rich region of Cabo Delgado.
The Wagner Group is a private military company owned by
Yevgeny Prigozhin, a Russian oligarch with very close ties to President
Vladimir Putin. He’s known as “Putin’s chef” as he owns a vast catering firm as
well. With Putin’s aim to expand Russia’s influence in Africa, Wagner Group
proxy forces are operating in Sudan, the Central African Republic as well as
Mozambique. They also have a large presence in Libya and Syria.
Wagner Group is essentially an arm of Russian state policy:
they have never been employed anywhere without Kremlin’s approval. And while
not officially recognized as such, they are in fact proxy forces of Putin’s
government. “I make no distinction between Russian soldiers and the Wagner
Group — the way they cooperate,” Jasmine Opperman, a South African terrorism
expert told the Voice of America in an interview.
As we wrote last fall in SOFREP, although there are several
African protection firms — with a wealth of experience in this area of the
continent — available for hire, the Mozambican government nevertheless opted to
go with Wagner, due to its obvious political clout and its much cheaper price
tag than that of other firms. While a firm from Africa with 50-60 qualified
soldiers with vast experience in the area would cost the government between
$15,000 and $25,000 a month for each mercenary, the Wagner Group sent in 200
mercs for between $1,800-$4,700 a month each.
But the old caveat, “You get what you pay for” is an apt
description of what has transpired thus far in the region.
The overconfident Russian contractors, supported by Hind
gunships and ferried about with Mi-17 Hip helicopters, moved deep into the
interior along the Mozambique-Tanzania border. Air and ground forces were
supposed to operate in close cooperation with the Mozambican army (Forças
Armadas de Defesa de Moçambique: FADM). However, ISIS didn’t hesitate. As
reported by Southern Times following the arrival of the Russians, ISIS quickly reinforced
its units in Mozambique by rushing in “volunteers” from other East African
countries, especially from Somalia. This soon led to an intensified series of
guerrilla onslaughts.
Opperman called the situation a “perfect storm” and said of
Wagner’s efforts in the region, “The Russians don’t understand the local
culture, don’t trust the soldiers and have to fight in horrible conditions
against an enemy that is gaining more and more momentum. They are in over their
heads.” They are ill-accustomed to operating in a jungle environment and know
(or care) little about local customs and traditions.
Thus, the Russians are falling into the same problem they
had during the Soviet era: tensions between them and the host nations’ forces.
Russian mercs have accused the Mozambican soldiers of having no discipline,
while the host nation troops feel that they are being bullied by the Russians.
And there is no “Robin Sage” for the Russians to learn how to earn the trust of
a host nation’s force.
And now, after suffering a series of defeats and more than a
dozen deaths Wagner has pulled its troops back to its main base at Nacala,
about 250 miles to the south.
They are facing the same problem in the Central African
Republic (CAR). There are hundreds of Wagner Group mercs operating in the CAR,
embedded with a multitude of different forces, but they are losing all rapport
with the locals due to their brutish treatment of them.
North Africa isn’t kinder on them either.
The Russians have an estimated 1,000 Wagner mercs in Libya.
They suffered 35 killed in September, when the Turks hit them with a drone, as
they had no means to defend themselves against air attacks — similarly to what
happened to Wagner troops in Syria when they attacked a U.S. base. In January,
Putin and Turkish President Erdogan came to an agreement and following that
reports came out that Russian Wagner troops were withdrawn from the frontline
in Tripoli.
Libya has been in constant civil war since the U.S.-led
removal of longtime dictator Muammar al-Gadhafi in 2011. The United States, the
U.N. and most of the international community recognize the Government of
National Accord (GNA), based in the Libyan capital Tripoli, as the legitimate
government. But the eastern half of the country is led by Khalifa Hafter, who
is supported by Russia, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Hafter and
his troops have been trying to capture Tripoli.
Things aren’t going well for the Russians or Wagner in
Africa. And when you’re showing a perceived weakness, especially in this world
of private military contracts, others will attempt to use it to their
advantage.
Enter Erik Prince.
Prince, the founder of the private security firm Blackwater,
has in recent months been seeking to provide military services to Wagner in at
least two African hotspots according to reports from The Intercept.
Prince reportedly met earlier this year with a Wagner Group
official and offered to bolster Wagner’s operations in Libya and Mozambique.
Prince’s lawyer denied that Prince met with anyone from Wagner
According to the same report, Prince is also seeking to
provide a force to augment Wagner’s operations in Mozambique. Prince sent a
proposal to the Russian firm offering to supply ground forces and
aviation-based surveillance, something they are lacking at the present time.
However, Wagner/Russia shot down his proposal.
The Russians don’t want to admit that they need help, nor
accept it from an American with such close ties to the Trump White House —
Prince is the brother of Education Secretary Betsy DeVos.
Say what you will about Prince, but he has never shied away
from making unsolicited pitches for his ideas. That’s how he eventually came to
know President Trump. While in this case, the Russians/Wagner quickly shot down
his proposal it doesn’t change the fact that others can see that the Russian
“victory parade,” for getting merc contracts in Africa, was a bit premature.
They are having a rough go of it in the continent, and while
they’ll continue to throw money and mercs into the fray, they’re swimming in
uncharted waters and it shows.
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