Mikhail Saakashvili is back in the game
The ex-president of Georgia and the former governor of the
Odessa region of Ukraine, Mikhail Saakashvili, is again in demand. If the
Verkhovna Rada does not fail his candidacy, which is unlikely, he will become
vice-premier of the Ukrainian state regarding reforms. Tbilisi recalled the
ambassador to Ukraine. It seems to be in protest. After all, Saakashvili is
accused in his homeland immediately of several serious articles of the criminal
code and put on the wanted list.
By the way, Georgia also recalled the ambassador at the first
advent of Saakashvili to the Ukrainian government, when President Petro
Poroshenko appointed him governor of the Odessa region. But then Tbilisi and
Kiev hushed up this story, not plunging into a whirlpool of contradictions. Now
the combination is repeated. And she looks weird.
Having won the presidential election, Vladimir Zelensky, one
of his first acts, restored Saakashvili to Ukrainian citizenship. The
ex-president of Georgia scattered thanks and made it clear that he was waiting
for the next step Zelensky. That is, an invitation to some prominent position.
But did not wait. Moreover, the new Ukrainian leader defiantly distanced
himself from Saakashvili and even released a caustic remark about him.
Saakashvili decided that he was allowed to equip his
political future himself, and for some time he became more active in the party
field, deciding to participate in the parliamentary elections. But it seems
that something did not grow together along this line. He rushed about, made
several statements about the transfer of his party’s votes to Zelensky’s
“Servant of the People”, then he began to “cooperate” with the Kiev mayor
Vitali Klitschko in the same way, but did not receive any public thanks. Then
he withered and switched to his native Georgia, where the opposition diligently
shook the power of the "Georgian Dream".
He would have plunged into his element completely if he
could have returned to Tbilisi, but received an unambiguous signal that he
would be taken from the airport along the shortest route to a cell long
prepared for him. Saakashvili waved an airplane from afar, promised his
supporters to come to Georgia at any cost and by any means to send Bidzina
Ivanishvili to the country's informal ruler. Naturally, I didn’t come. And his
further actions are a mixture of the actions of a sharpie and a blackmailer. He
demanded that the opposition take active revolutionary action, then frighten
the authorities with U.S. discontent, or organize angry letters from American
congressmen to the authorities, or in various cities of the United States and
Europe organize congresses of emigrants, with whom he allegedly intended to
return to Georgia on foot, or quarreled with his Georgian party members then
put up. But the fading itself even earlier than the opposition surge began to
fade.
The next wave of activity occurred already during the
pandemic. Saakashvili invited the Georgian authorities at his own expense to
return several thousand Georgian citizens who are abroad to the country, but in
return received an offer to calm down, and if there is a great desire, then
transfer the money to a special fund, and the government itself uses them to
organize special flights. In response, Saakashvili announced that the Georgian
authorities did not want to open a quarantined airport, which, of course,
turned out to be another fantasy that was far from reality. After some time, he
invited the authorities to temporarily close criminal cases until the fall, to
allow him to return to Tbilisi, and in return he promised to secure investments
of several billion dollars. And here is the ellipsis. Because I got an offer to
do business. Recall that before becoming governor of the Odessa region,
Saakashvili hatched some plans for Georgian politics, but having gained a place
in Ukraine, he immediately lost interest (at least externally) in Tbilisi.
And here is the first version of why Zelensky needed
Saakashvili. I emphasize - no evidence, no "reliable rumors", etc.
Just a version.
Georgia should hold parliamentary elections in the fall. It
is unknown, however, how the epidemiological situation will develop. Depending
on it, they can also be transferred. The positions of the ruling "Georgian
Dream" have noticeably shaken. Despite the authorities’s clear actions
during the pandemic, the opposition will find what to attack for. At least for
the objectively inevitable economic downturn and the deterioration of living
standards. Rumor ascribes the leader of the "Georgian Dream" Bidzina
Ivanishvili and Ukrainian oligarch Igor Kolomoisky, who raised Zelensky to the
presidency, a tested friendship. To distract Saakashvili during the difficult
period for Ivanishvili from Georgia, to occupy him with something in Ukraine -
why not ?! Especially if you can benefit from balancing with Mikhail Saakashvili
who has gained too much political weight Arsen Avakov. About their "warm
relations", formed even under Petro Poroshenko, is well known. And then,
when or if the knife reaches the bone, arrange a “bargain” - remove both. True,
Saakashvili managed to declare that he did not intend to continue to sort
things out with Avakov - they say that the time was not right. But, firstly,
knowing Saakashvili, this is hard to believe. Secondly, who said that Avakov
will calmly demolish the newly-made deputy prime minister, who will surely
attract the attention of the press for sure.
The second version. The Ukrainian authorities managed to
discredit themselves in the eyes of the West. In a crisis, we need money that
no one in a hurry to provide to Kiev. Saakashvili, who has still not lost
support in some American circles, could become a lifesaver for which money will
come to Ukraine. He himself - read above - once promised Georgia billions of
dollars in investments. Of course, he could hyperbolize, but you never know ...
The third version. Zelensky and the team are losing in the
ranking. The situation should be saved by a bright charismatic politician,
immersed in the Ukrainian alignment, able to build relations with the media and
experts. Saakashvili’s candidacy is suitable. But at the same time, the
weakness of Zelensky’s team is revealed, a short bench of “substitutes”, if it
was necessary to attract Saakashvili, who tarnished his reputation with failed
reforms in the Odessa region, and then with completely anecdotal adventures in
Kiev quarters, including roofs of houses, until his arrest and expulsion from
Ukraine to Europe. But in any case, if not bread, then with the return of
Saakashvili to power, the sight of the Ukrainian people is provided.
The fourth version. Saakashvili as Deputy Prime Minister - a
lightning rod from Zelensky himself. No reforms are now possible in Ukraine -
there are no resources, the wrong time. All responsibility is shifted to the
"legionnaire", who, in terms of reformism, will turn out to be
"hooked" 17 years after the "Rose Revolution". And with
this, the current government wins time. At the same time, society is gently
reminded of the absolute failure of the party friends and girlfriends of the
ex-president of Georgia invited to work in Kiev, who "reformed" the
healthcare system and law enforcement agencies so that Ukraine is still
shaking. And the conclusion, disappointing for the public, was that the slip
came out, that they could not in Georgia, could not in Ukraine - the climate
must be not the same, and the water in the Dnieper is different than in the
Kura.
The fifth version. American curators are tired of overly
energetic Saakashvili. It was not possible to return to Georgia, so let it work
in Ukraine. Moreover, Zelensky is slipping, but with the energy and ambitions
of Saakashvili ... It is not enough, but what the hell is not joking? Turn it
up, stir it up, and there it will be visible - maybe the curve will bring it
somewhere really.
You can strain up and come up with as many less or more
plausible versions. But there is no special meaning. Despite the fact that it
will soon become clear why Zelensky needed Saakashvili, whom he himself, when
he was a comedian, made fun of him unkindly. But for Ukraine, the decision is
rather unsuitable than capable of producing a result.
Firstly, Saakashvili can be successful in implementing
projects with absolute support, or with his absolute power. As it was in
Georgia in the early years of the "rose revolution". He has neither
one nor the other. As was not when he was the head of the Odessa region. Since
then, the situation on the banks of the Dnieper has not changed.
Secondly, in a state with a high level of ethnic
self-identification, such as Ukraine, it will always be treated with some
prejudice, or suspicion, as a stranger. Even from a friendly state, but to a
stranger.
Thirdly, about 13 years have passed since the successful
political period for Saakashvili. In 2003, he launched the “Rose Revolution,”
and after just four years, the opposition nearly “arranged” him. Then he
resisted, in a highly controversial situation, won the early presidential
elections, while unconditionally losing them in Tbilisi. Since then, luck has
turned its back on him, and he himself has become increasingly bogged down in
political squabbles than he has been noticed in the commission of deeds. And
when they say that this is not the same Saakashvili that was in 2003, it is
probably worth listening to.
Fourth, to what extent is Saakashvili himself ready to work
as deputy prime minister for reforms without official ambitions? This is really
hard to believe. If he himself will not consciously extinguish the impulses of
his ambitions, then very soon the Ukrainian elite will begin such that Zelensky
damn the day and hour when he decided to invite the ex-president of Georgia to
work.
Fifth, relations with Russia and the Donbass conflict.
Everything on the surface and additions are not needed here. In Kiev, another
irritant was added to Moscow. Serious irritant. And if, by an ingrained habit,
he undertakes to “analyze” the policies of Russia and its leader, then wait for
new troubles.
Summarizing everything, the bottom line is that, in addition
to all the challenges, Kiev came up with another one, hoping to acquire an
effective manager or even a strong ally. But what he actually received will
become clear quite quickly - in proportion to the emotionality of the new
deputy prime minister.
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